As we grow up we are trained to think about things in a linear way. But it can leave us ill-equipped in our complex, fast moving modern world, harm our finances and even cause problems for AI.
Beautifully explained! Compound growth is hugely important in finance & economics, so efforts are made to explain its "power", "magic", etc. I applaud this, but suggest we pay equal attention to its flipside, important for nature and ecosystems. If one thing grows at a steady rate and displaces another, in a finite space, the rate of decline in the other is NOT steady, but accelerating. The accelerating pace may catch many of us by surprise - indeed, it was trying to model my lived experience that brought the arithmetical truth to my attention:
I first wrote about this five years ago, and some of my most numerate readers were as startled as I was, but the response was very limited. It seems important for policymakers, conservationists, & those scaling up emergency response? Even exponential growth in response capabilities might not be enough; urgent action might flatten curves.
Kit, if you agree, perhaps you could bring it to wider attention? with or without the name I used: the Hemingway Decline.
Plotting data on log graph paper (by hand) was a revelation to me when writing up fluid mechanics lab experiments as part of my undergrad degree in the 1960s. Loved “straightening out” and understanding all those nonlinear relationships.
First thing I did when COVID data was published in March 2020 was to plot excel data on a log axis. So obvious where those numbers were heading, and how quickly, once one saw data on a log scale.
It would so good if log graphs were taught and understood more widely, which would give people a much better grasp of what “exponential” means and feels like.
Beautifully explained! Compound growth is hugely important in finance & economics, so efforts are made to explain its "power", "magic", etc. I applaud this, but suggest we pay equal attention to its flipside, important for nature and ecosystems. If one thing grows at a steady rate and displaces another, in a finite space, the rate of decline in the other is NOT steady, but accelerating. The accelerating pace may catch many of us by surprise - indeed, it was trying to model my lived experience that brought the arithmetical truth to my attention:
https://apolloinvestment.com/20230128_HemingwayDecline.htm
I first wrote about this five years ago, and some of my most numerate readers were as startled as I was, but the response was very limited. It seems important for policymakers, conservationists, & those scaling up emergency response? Even exponential growth in response capabilities might not be enough; urgent action might flatten curves.
Kit, if you agree, perhaps you could bring it to wider attention? with or without the name I used: the Hemingway Decline.
Plotting data on log graph paper (by hand) was a revelation to me when writing up fluid mechanics lab experiments as part of my undergrad degree in the 1960s. Loved “straightening out” and understanding all those nonlinear relationships.
First thing I did when COVID data was published in March 2020 was to plot excel data on a log axis. So obvious where those numbers were heading, and how quickly, once one saw data on a log scale.
It would so good if log graphs were taught and understood more widely, which would give people a much better grasp of what “exponential” means and feels like.