How to Expect the Unexpected (out in paperback)
The paperback of my latest book How to Expect the Unexpected is out today and this is a shameless plug for you to buy it.
It’s not often that a book about mathematics makes its way up the best-sellers list, but I’m hoping with the release of How to Expect the Unexpected in paperback this week that I might make a dent.
It’s been over a year since it came out in the UK. It was received well both here and in the US when it was released a few months later.
Here are a few quotes from well-known people who read the book and enjoyed it:
‘Delightfully clear and vivid to read...A splendid book!’ - Philip Pullman
‘Absolutely fascinating’ - James O'Brien
‘An exceptional book - readable, funny and more needed than ever’ - Dr Chris van Tulleken
‘A vivid, wide-ranging and delightful guide to the light and the dark side of prediction.’ - Tim Harford
‘If you read this book, I can comfortably predict you will be better at avoiding deception, foretelling the future - and changing your mind.’ - Professor Alice Roberts
If you’ve enjoyed my pieces on here over the last year then it would mean a lot to me if you would get yourself a copy of the paperback this week and help the book climb up the charts.
Here’s a little summary of what the book is all about:
“Ever since the dawn of human civilisation, we have been trying to make predictions about what's in store for us. We do this on a personal level, so that we can get on with our lives efficiently (should I hang my laundry out to dry, or will it rain?). But we also have to predict on a much larger scale, often for the good of our broader society (how can we spot economic downturns or prevent terrorist attacks?)
For just as long, we have been getting it wrong. From religious oracles to weather forecasters, and from politicians to economists, we are subjected to poor predictions all the time. Our job is to separate the good from the bad.
Unfortunately, the foibles of our own biology - the biases that ultimately make us human - can let us down when it comes to making rational inferences about the world around us. And that can have disastrous consequences.
How to Expect the Unexpected will teach you how and why predictions go wrong, help you to spot phony forecasts and give you a better chance of getting your own predictions correct.”
You can get your copy at (as the cliche goes) all good book shops, but I’ve put a load of links below so you can choose your favourite.